m a r k a n d e y a

I concur…

Posted by Brian on August 9, 2007

I agree with this analysis 100% (written in the letters section over at Salon.com):

Democrats should take over the White House in 2008, but they won’t. That is because they are likely to nominate Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton will not only lose the general election, she will get crushed. Her husband, who is infinitely more popular than she is, never carried more than 50 percent of the popular vote. Furthermore, Hillary is so polarizing she starts off in the hole with over 50 percent of voters stating that they would not vote for her under any circumstances. People say, “she can win, she just has to carry the Kerry states plus Ohio.” That assumes that only the states Bush carried are in play and not the states that Kerry carried. Not only will Hillary not carry Ohio, she will lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and most likely Minnesota, Wisconsin, and perhaps Oregon and Washington — all states Kerry barely carried. Democrats should wake up and realize that this country will never elect Hillary as President. It’s not that she’s a woman, it’s that she’s Hillary.

As for Senator Obama, I just love him, and he will be President some day. It just will not be in 2008. I actually think a President Obama is just what this country needs right now, especially in repairing America’s image in the eyes of the rest of the world. However, right now, in the eyes of American voters, he is simply too inexperienced for the voters to turn the keys of government over to him, especially this closely removed from 9-11. Senator Obama will lose the same states as Hillary. For all of his freshness and charisma, he just isn’t that exciting on the campaign trial, and couple that with his inexperience, he doesn’t stand a chance. It’s doubtful he will be nominated, but if he is, he will lose.

The only true chance that the democrats have is to nominate Gore or Edwards. Since Gore is unlikely to get in the race, Edwards stands the best chance. Edwards will not only carry the states Kerry won, but he will pick off Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, New Mexico (okay Gov. Richardson could pick this one off too) and Louisiana, where he has built up good will in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, and possibly North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas.

2008 should be the year of the democrats, but if they nominate a person half the country hates (Clinton), or a nominee that the country is unsure of (Obama), then the democrats will most certainly lose the White House in 2008. Although Sen. Edwards’ campaign has been nit-picked to death on trivial matters, such trivialities will be overcome when it comes crunch time and the country has to pick a new leader. Despite his campaign’s missteps, Edwards is still palpable to a majority of voters, his substantive ideas are driving the debate, at least in the democratic primary, he is a dynamic campaigner, has a compelling biography, and a terrific wife.

Edwards is a sure fire winner, and if you don’t believe it, just pay attention to how much effort the republican party and the chattering class are expending to knock him around on silly, non-sensical issues. Their hit jobs are evidence enough of how scared republicans are of him.

Edwards, if nominated, would walk into the presidency. Sad thing is that we will never know this, and instead democrats will watch Romney or Thompson take the oath office in Jan. 09, and I’ll be the guy who’ll come up to you and say, I told you so.

Gore and Edwards are the best chance for the Dems to win in ’08. I would love to see Gore throw his hat in the ring again, but if chooses not to, I could gladly vote for Edwards.

Hillary will lose. She’s a woman; she’s a Clinton; and I think (hope) people want a fresh start – so no more Bushes or Clintons. The problem is the Democratic primary voters who might be overwhelmed by her fundraising prowess and mistake that for electibility in the general election. I don’t care how much money she can raise with the help of her husband… I don’t want her as our nominee and would most likely not even cast a vote for her in the general.

As much as I like Obama, he is young and inexperienced, much like our current president when he started his job. The last 7 years of fuck-ups by the Bush team should remind voters that experience does matter. Obama would be a great veep pick, though.

Ideally, I would love to see a Gore-Obama ticket. That would crush the opposition and set the country up good for 2014, with an older, wiser Obama taking over the baton.

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4 Responses to “I concur…”

  1. Tony said

    I’ve always liked Edwards, who crushes the opposition in the matchups.

  2. Kevin Kim said

    Obama might not be bad. He’s a quick learner, like Bill Clinton was. You’ll recall that Clinton, though I’m not a fan of his, did learn from early mistakes such as throwing out veteran White House staffers and ushering in clueless kids as a sign of regime change… it quickly became obvious that the Old Guard had its place in the scheme of things, and Clinton ended up relying on hoary old GOPers like Alan Greenspan. I suspect that Obama has a much better character than Clinton (either Clinton), and I think he might be smart enough to learn from his own mistakes, too.

    Too bad Mark Warner’s not running. Too bad Joe Lieberman’s no longer a Dem.

    Kevin

  3. Kevin Kim said

    (OK, Greenspan wasn’t a White House staffer, but you catch my drift.)

    K

  4. retro said

    As much as I’d like to see a woman president, I don’t trust Hillary as far as I can throw her.

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